Well, well, well. Another winning week for us in Week 9. Just think, we were one kicker injury in State College from getting the Over home, instead it ended on the number (63). But we are not going to complain about a week finishing in the green. To recap, we finished up at 6-2-1 on our blog picks last week. Add in a 2-2 on official Twitter plays and you get an 8-4-1 Week 9. That pushes us to 40-23-2 for the season. If you have been following along…
Now though, the waiting is over. We have everyone back to the party (Sorry UCONN)! #MACtion returned with a bang last night. So many points, turnovers, missed kicks, and even a power outage. Everything that is pure about the MAC, all on a night where people needed a break from staring at a map. Saturday we have the return of the Pac 12, which not only gives us a handful of more games each week. But more importantly it gives us some more late night bail out games. Nothing like betting an Oregon or UCLA Over at 11pm EST.
Now it is time to turn our attention to Week 10. A full slate equals a full heart. And as Coach Taylor famously said…
FRIDAY
7:30pm – Miami @ NC State O59
Let’s start off the week with some Friday night action. First we will look at Miami. The Hurricanes added quarterback D’Eriq King this season after he transferred in from Houston. King has lived up to the hype so far, having thrown for 1,401 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has also ran for 301 yards and two touchdowns. It is a good thing too, since they have not been able to get the rushing attack going this season. A good recipe to fix this is a poor NC State rush defense that gives up big plays.
Unfortunately for the Wolfpack their quarterback went down with an injury and they have not had any success with the replacements. I would expect them to try to also get their running game going. While Miami does have a strong defense, running defense is definitely their weakness.
So let’s get this straight. If we expect lots of running and one team has poor QB play, why would Over be the play. Well its Friday night and who wants to cheer for punts. Seriously though, I expect some home run plays in this one. A few long runs. A few deep balls off of play action. And you can always count on King for a couple highlight plays.
So grab a cold one. Sit back and enjoy some points under the Friday Night Lights
Final Prediction: Miami 38 NC State 30
9:45pm – BYU @ Boise State O61
This right here is a must watch game. An undefeated BYU team brings their high flying offense and stingy defense into Boise, to square off with the undefeated Broncos. While Boise has only played two games thus far, their offense looks to be humming along too. Neither team’s offensive success is due to playing overly fast, however it is due to scoring in the redzone and finishing drives. Honestly though we are taking the over because
BYU 44.4 points per game
+
Boise State 45.5 points per game
+
the Blue Turf
=
Friday Night Fun…
Final Prediction: BYU 37 Boise State 34
SATURDAY
12:00pm – Arizona St. @ USC 1H U29
We are going to kick off our Saturday doing something we have never done before. Not only are we going to take an Under (Hurts to type) but we are taking a 1H under. It kills me to make this the first play of Pac 12 season but hear me out. This game is kicking off at 9am their time. We are banking on a slow start from two rusty teams. It doesn’t hurt that both teams are returning 8 starters on defense and many of their top tacklers. Closing our eyes here and cheering against points (yuck)…
First Half Prediction: USC 13 Arizona St. 10
12:00pm – Mich. St. @ Iowa -7
*Looks like 6.5 may pop up so monitor*
Let’s just add a little more stress to our noon slate. If it wasn’t bad enough to take an under we are now going after a rat line. Much like last week when we focused on spots the books looked to be trying to trick us, this plays the part. An 0-2 Iowa team favored by a touchdown against a Spartans team coming off the win in the Big House? It makes so little sense that the only thing that makes sense is taking the Hawkeyes in this one. Might have to start drinking early this week…
Final Prediction: Iowa 30 Mich. St. 20
2:00pm – BC @ Syracuse O52.5
Thanks to betting Clemson Overs we have had the chance to watch both of these teams. Despite playing against a far superior opponent and one of the best defenses in the country, I like what I saw out of each team’s offenses/quarterbacks. Each team showed the ability to move the ball, throw it deep, and get a few big hitters. Also each team turns the ball over from time-to-time, which can lead to short fields, scoop and scores, and pick 6’s. Honestly we have done quite well on our ACC Overs this season and am going to keep it going on them…
Final Prediction: BC 42 Syracuse 24
3:30pm – Kansas @ Oklahoma O63
This one is quite simple so let’s not over think it. Kansas is awful. They were a team this year you simply just bet against and watched them get blown out. With the spreads continuing to climb (38/39 here), we instead are going to focus on the total here. Oklahoma has quietly got things rolling on offense, as Spencer Rattler comes into his own. I see zero reason to think things slow down here. Taking the -38 is tempting here but you always fear the backdoor (That’s what she said) in garbage time. So let’s just ride the Sooners to carry us. They might get damn close on their own…
…and if they do…
Final Prediction: Oklahoma 55 Kansas 17
3:30pm – Maryland @ PSU O63.5
This right here is a spot we are taking the Over because it feels like the spot for Penn State to get an offensive explosion. Week 1 they out performed Indiana across the board on offense but were undone by turnovers. In Week 2 they had the unfortunate task of playing the Buckeyes. Luckily for them, this week they get to welcome the Terps to Happy Valley. Maryland gave up 44 to Minnesota last week and see know reason why the Nittany Lions can’t replicate that success. On the other side, last week looked like Taulia Tagovailoa’s coming out party. He passed for 394yds and rushed for another 59yds, while tallying 5 TD’s. While Penn State is a step up in competition, I’d expect Maryland to still have some offensive success.
Put that all together and 63.5 looks real good….
Final Prediction: PSU 45 Maryland 27
3:30pm – Houston @ Cincinnati -13.5
The last two weeks Cincinnati had back-to-back “prove it” games against the AAC Elites. The results…
Cinci 42 SMU 13
Cinci 49 Memphis 10
I would say that qualifies as proving themselves. Next up, the Houston Cougars. This right here is another prove it type game but in a different way. This is a chance to show they won’t get caught in a let down spot. I believe the Coach Fickell has the Bearcats ready to go at home this weekend and they lay it on Houston.
The biggest fear here is we have not had luck on Houston games the last several weeks. We bet them they lose. We fade them, they win. We bet Over last week, they let us down. So far this season I have already had to retire two of my favorite betting teams for the year (Texas Tech and Miss St/Leach). I don’t want to have to do that to my other favorite, Houston. So don’t let us down or…
Final Prediction: Cinci 42 Houston 20
4:00pm – Oklahoma St. @ Kansas St. +13
Two teams coming off of tough losses. Oklahoma State lost a heartbreaker to Texas last week, potentially ending their playoff dreams. On the other hand Kansas State got blown out by West Virginia on the road.
What we have here is two angry teams trying to bounce back. I expect both teams to show up, play hard and for a competitive game. Have to take the points in what should be a close game between two hungry teams with their pride on the line…
Final Prediction: Ok. St. 24 KSU 20
7:30pm – Tennessee @ Arkansas +2
In a game between two comparable teams I typically look at two factors.
First the quarterbacks. I give a strong edge to Felipe Franks (Something i never thought I’d type a few years ago) over Jarrett Guarantano. Tennessee fans have been clamoring for a QB change that just hasn’t happened. On the other hand Hogs fans have to be estatic with what they have gotten out of Franks thus far.
Secondly, and most importantly is coaching. On paper the edge here would probably go to highly coveted Jeremy Pruitt over the non “Sexy” hire Arkansas made when hiring Sam Pittman. However some times it’s not your previous resume or if you were the “Hot hire”…it is what you can get out of your team. Thus far Pittman has coached the hell out of his team and I expect him to do that once again Saturday night…
Final Prediction: Arkansas 30 Tennessee 27
10:30pm – Washington St. @ Oregon St. -1.5
Ahh the Saturday late night Pac 12 games. Oh how we have missed you. Let’s start off with a winner by backing the Beavers here. Oregon State came off a successful (for OSU) season last year where they nearly made a bowl game. Looking to build on this, Oregon State will feature a legit running back in Jermar Jefferson. Jefferson has over 2,000 yards over the last two seasons. Taking the snaps will be a former 4-Star recruit, transfer QB Tristan Gebbia. If Gebbia starts to live up to his recruiting ranks, he will pair nicely with Jefferson.
Wazzu on the other hand has a few things working against them here. First off they have a new coach coming in who has to replace an entire offensive system. Mike Leach has been running the air raid for years and many of the leftover players were recruited for that system. Secondly, the Cougars will be bringing a true freshman QB (Jayden de Laura) to open the season on the road.
Let’s take the Beavers in this late night tilt and finish off a strong Week 10. If you followed along and made it this far…
Final Prediction: Oregon St. 33 Wazzu 24
There they are. 11 Winners for Week 10. As always, make sure you follow the ol’Twitter (@BetOppositeOfMe) for additional adds, although some of those may be after a few adult recreational beverages. With all the stress, hate, anger…etc. going on in the world, let’s just enjoy some college football and making some extra cash. So lets have some fun this week and as always if you fade them good luck…
but also…
#BOOM #CHEERS #SaturdaysAreForTheOver
BetOppositeOfMe 