Week 9: Tricks and Treats

Another week down and another winning week in the books. The first one with the Big Ten and Mountain West back made it feel so much more like real College Football. Now we just wait for the Pac 12 and #MACtion. So, so, so close.

The highlight for us in Week 8 was definitely Ohio State deciding to let backup QB Jack Miller go for the score inside the last minute. Instead of taking a knee sitting at 45-17, Coach Day let Miller get his first touchdown of his career. With the extra point, the Over hit by half a point, giving us the double winner. Coach Day later apologized to Under Betters Coach Frost.

A close second was the Indiana/Penn State game. That had it all. We went from sitting pretty and counting on the +6.5 to hit. To all of a sudden Penn State storming back to take a one point lead with the ball and a short field. Then Penn State RB had a brain fart and instead of kneeling it at the one (Giving us the win, as well as the Nittany Lions), he fell into the endzone. This put PSU up 8 and us suddenly losing the bet we had in the bag. Cue Indiana driving down in under 2 minutes to score a td and convert the 2-point conversion. With Overtime starting, all Hoosiers’ backers could sense the 7 point loss coming. But Penix Jr. and Indiana had other ideas, going for 2 to win the game in the first OT. We all know what happened next.

Just the tip.

Those wins were countered by some awful picks, such as the Auburn Over and Minnesota. Those ones were dead pretty quickly. All in all though, we went 6-3 on our BOOM Blog picks. Unfortunately our Twitter Adds were only 1-3, putting us at 7-6 for the week. Overall for the season we move to 32-19-1.

That is a pretty solid start to the year. Let’s dive a little deeper though.

For the season the blog picks are 20-9-1, compared to just 12-10 on Twitter Adds.

So the moral of the story is follow the blog picks.

Cuz we are feeling ourselves…

Now we just need to keep it going as we turn our attention to Week 9. With Saturday’s slate falling on Halloween, what better way to pay homage than by doing our version of trick or treating. First we’ll give you some bets where the books think they can trick us…but we’re onto them. Then we will give you some bets that seem to be treats the books are giving us. It will be like stealing candy from a baby.

-TRICKS–

*I would expect some of these specific ATS games to provide a better # closer to kickoff.

*These are as of Wednesday 10/28/20 but waiting for a football # might pay off and I plan too*

12:00pm – Mich. State +24.5 @ Mich.

Well this one is going to be tough to swallow. The Wolverines are coming off one of their most impressive wins in quite some time, dismantling ranked Minnesota on the road. Their defense was impressive and Freshman QB Joe Milton looks like he could be “The One” for Harbaugh. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, the Spartans got embarrassed by Rutgers last week…yes Rutgers. Managing only 50 yards rushing versus Rutgers does not sound like a recipe for success against that Wolverines defense.

So why in the hell would we be siding with MSU here?!

Because this line stinks. Based on everything we saw last week, plus the game being in the Big House…it feels like this should be a 35+ point spread. Yet it is sitting between 24-25. There are a few things that are going to have to happen for us to get this home, otherwise it could be a tough noon slate.

-MSU cannot turn the ball over. They had 7! turnovers last week

-Banking on a sluggish start, being an early kick

-Going to need the pride of the Spartans and the rivalry factor to kick in. Sometimes rivalry games defy logic.

Again, this is just a principle bet. Trying to outsmart the books early on a Saturday. If we are wrong it could be scary day for the dogs here…

Final Prediction: Mich. 34 MSU 17

2:00pm – UCF @ Houston O82.5

Trick #2 is another one that is tough to follow but hear me out. UCF has consistently been a scoring machine over the last few seasons. They have hit the Over in 4 of 5 games this season, including 85 points last week versus a Tulane team that plays slower than Houston. UCF is averaging nearly 650 points per game and has no problem at all playing in shootouts.

On the flip side, Houston is 3-0 for the Over this season. Averaging nearly 40 per contest. This is skewed slightly, with them playing Navy who historically slows games down. The x-factor here is Coach Dana Holgorson, who going back to his days at West Virginia is known for being in shootouts and some of the highest scoring games.

My thought here is that Vegas is so sick of taking L’s on UCF and Houston Overs that they set this # so high it will force people to take the Under, mitigating their losses when the Over hits.

I know logic says just hope for a few punts or long drives and take the Under but logic can’t trick me here. Points, points, points.

You can’t scare me off. Do I look scared?!

Final Prediction: UCF 52 Houston 44

7:30pm – Arkansas +12.5 @ Texas A&M

2-2 team on the road versus the #8 Team in the country? Seems like a blowout on paper but this line suggest otherwise. A&M -12/12.5 is just begging betters to back the Aggies here, but…

If you take a deeper look at the underdog here you will see a 2-2 team that should be 3-1 had the refs not gift wrapped the game to Auburn a couple week’s back. You will also see a team that is 4-0 ATS, covering the spread by and average of 12.1 ppg.

I think this game will come down to the Quarterback matchup and I can’t believe it but I actually think Felipe Franks can play on par with Kellen Mond. There seems to be something special going on in Arkansas, with Coach Sam Pittman getting everything out of his guys. Might even talk myself into a ML play by kickoff.

We are backing another dog here, this one I feel better about.

Final Prediction: A&M 30 Arkansas 24

8:00pm – North Carolina @ Virginia +6.5

This is the one right here. This is the ultimate trick. It just has to be.

Let me get this straight…

#15 North Carolina who is 4-1 and has one of the better QB’s in the country, is only favored by 6.5 against a 1-4 Virginia team? A Virginia team coming off 4 straight losses?

Early on >70% of the bets are on UNC and around 90% of the money. This line stinks and makes no sense at all. Can’t trick us. We are backing the Cavaliers and the rat line (Might be worth waiting to see if it hits 7).

Final Prediction: North Carolina 30 Virginia 27

-TREATS-

12:00pm – Boston College @ Clemson O61

*Trevor Lawrence will now be out with Covid-19*

*We may look at a Boston College play here but will update. Either way Thoughts with Trevor and the Tigers*

***Boston College +25 @ Clemson***

What better way than to start off our Treats section than by going with an “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” approach. The last two weeks Clemson has been an easy winner for us on the Over. So why stop now? Syracuse put up 21 last week and I think Boston College is significantly better than them. The key factor here though is Dabo got mad last week for being questioned about his team’s effort and “Struggle”. A pissed off Dabo is good for us here as I expect him to keep the foot firmly on the gas.

Clemson rolls. Dabo shuts up the reporters. We make it rain…

Final Prediction: Clemson 55 Boston College 21

3:30pm – Notre Dame @ GTech O57.5

This right here is the same theory as above. We will keep riding the Georgia Tech Overs. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 to the Over this season, including 5 straight. They offer the perfect storm for Overs. They play quickly on offense. Don’t stop trying in blowouts. Turn the ball over a lot, creating short fields and defensive TD’s. And have a few talented skill players to create some big plays.

Notre Dame should use this one to pad the resume and get some offensive stats. But overall they are being treated to a Over Party courtesy of GTech…

Final Prediction: ND 44 GTech 24

4:00pm – Ole Miss -17 @ Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt in the last two week’s versus average competition (South Carolina/LSU) have been outscored 82-14. They are averaging 8 ppg on the season! Getting a much more high octane offense and team as a whole, in Ole Miss, laying less than 3 td’s is good enough for me here.

In similar fashion to how teams have been rolling over Kansas in the Big 12, I think Vandy is the punching bag of the SEC. Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin have a had a rough few week’s and this seems like the prime spot to get feeling right. After a brutal schedule to start the season, Kiffin and the Rebels have a chance to put a hurting on someone. They should be able to do their usual scoring but for once are playing an opposing team even their defense can slow down.

You can back Vandy if you want but as for myself…

Final Prediction: Ole Miss 44 Vanderbilt 20

7:30pm – Ohio State @ Penn State O63

For the treat of the night we are being given a primetime showdown between two of the best the B1G has to offer. While part of me wanted to lay the points in this one, something seemed fishy. Penn State off a loss scares me too. So we will focus on the total in this one.

Nothing I saw last week from either Ohio State’s offense or Penn State’s defense makes me think the Buckeyes won’t score often in this one. Justin Fields exceeded even the highest of expectations, with his only incompletion being a dropped TD. While the Buckeyes limited rushing attack could be further exposed against PSU, Fields having to throw 30+ times isn’t a bad thing.

Penn State will be down yet another RB in this game, with Noah Cain out for the season. This is unfortunate for the Nittany Lions but the X-factor’s here are:

-TE Pat Freiermuth: Ohio State LB’s have traditionally struggled covering TE’s and Freiermuth is one of the best in the country

-Sean Clifford’s legs. The Buckeyes struggled at times last week to contain both of Nebraska’s QB’s in the run game. If that happens again expect Clifford to have a huge night. He ran for 119 yards last week and that appears quite doable Saturday evening.

I expect this one to be pretty close throughout and the Buckeyes could end up covering in the end, but either way the Over is the play.

Someday I will be able to tell my kids “I remember when the Over Under for this game would have been in the 40’s”. That will be the moment I know I am old…

Final Prediction: Ohio State 42 Penn State 30

9:30pm – San Diego St. – 7.5 @ Utah St.

While it is only one week into the Mountain West season, I could not have been more impressed by what I saw out of SDSU last week. Offensively they have a duo of elite runners in Kaegun Williams and Greg Bell. There defense held UNLV to under 200 total yards. Brady Hoke is back home in SDSU and looks poised to pick up where he left off nearly a decade ago. On the other hand Utah St. got steamrolled by Boise State last week. In my opinion SDSU will be the biggest threat to Boise in the MWC this season. With that being said I expect a similar outcome for the Aggies this week. While the style of play of SDSU won’t lend to quite the high scoring blowout, I expect a dominating performance. We might not see SDSU laying this few points again this season (outside of it’s last game of the season vs. Boise) so let’s treat ourselves. Aztecs dominate this one.

Final Prediction: SDSU 33 Utah St. 13

There they are. 9 Winners for Week 9. As always, make sure you follow the ol’Twitter (@BetOppositeOfMe) for additional adds, although some of those may be after a few adult recreational beverages. However, as outlined above the Blog picks are outperforming these (Damn beers). Everyone have a safe and fun Halloween. No excuse not to wear a mask. So lets have some fun this week and as always if you fade them good luck…

but also…

#BOOM #CHEERS #SaturdaysAreForTheOver

Week 8: Gettin’ B1Ggy With It

The wait is nearly over! We are almost back to full slates of college football. While we still have two more weeks until the Pac 12 joins the party, we don’t mind celebrating early.

And the major reason for that celebration is the return of the B1G Ten. After postponing the season originally this is something that some thought may never happen. However thanks to primarily Scott Frost/Nebraska and Ryan Day/Ohio State, the conference did not go down without a fight. Despite a brutal (to put it kindly) start on the job for B1G Commissioner Kevin Warren, the conference circled the wagons to get a season in place. Not only does that mean National Championship chances for the likes of Ohio State, but it also means we have nearly 50 games on the board this week! 50!

Now that is something we can all get jiggy with…

Before we move on though let’s quickly recap last week. Week 7 saw the Blog picks go 5-2, while the official Twitter adds went 2-2. Unfortunately after replacing Mike Leach with Lane Kiffin as the Over King, we put the jinx on the Ole Miss overs. Despite that, it’s another winning week, coming in at 7-5. That will put the season total at 25-13-1. I don’t know where you are from but where I am from that ain’t too shabby. Enough of the past though because the real season starts now. Can’t wait to tune into ESPN2 at noon in a few weeks and hear the sweet voice of Beth Mowins calling a 9-3 Northwestern/Iowa game with more punts that first downs. Between that and cool fall weather, I got chills.

But now it’s time to turn our attention to another B1G week…

B1G Picks

*We will provide a little more detail for these B1G games.

*Think of it as a getting know them: B1G Edition*

12:00pm – Nebraska @ Ohio State -26 and O68

What better way to start off the B1G picks that starting with the two teams that saved the season. Some feel the schedule makers made a point to make Nebraska pay for their brashness and threats. That is tough to argue with the Huskers having to start off on the road versus the Buckeyes. Not to mention them having to play Wisconsin next week and then Penn State just two weeks later. That is a B1G task to say the least.

Ohio State: Turning our focus back on this matchup. Let’s start off with the Buckeyes. Offensively there isn’t much not to like here. Heisman candidate and possible top 3 pick in the draft, Justin Fields leads the way at QB. Fields will be surrounded by possibly the best crop of receivers OSU has ever seen. The WR corp. is led by returning stars Chris Olave and Garret Wilson. Add to that, possible breakout star in speedster Jamison Williams and a trio of 5 stars freshman (Gee Scott Jr., Julian Fleming, Jaxon Smith-Njigba), and Fields should continue putting up video game numbers in year two. As for the backfield, obviously the loss of JK Dobbins is one that can not be overstated. However, they will try to replace him with a 2-headed monster. Expect to see a heavy dose of both Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon and Sophomore Master Teague, who showed flashes as a freshman last season. It won’t hurt running behind one of the strongest O-Lines in the country. In summation, expect Ohio State to score fast and score often in 2020.

Defensively the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, especially at linebacker. The question marks will come from having to replace first round picks Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah, and Damon Arnette. Luckily they are stocked with high ranked recruits just looking for their chance to shine. The secondary will be led by Shaun Wade, with Seven Banks and Tyreke Johnson expected to step into larger roles. On the defensive line, the name to watch is Zach Harrison, as he tries to continue the path set by the Bosa brothers and Chase Young.

Nebraska: Now let’s quickly dive into the Huskers. Scott Frost enters his third season in charge of his alma mater. And oh boy does he have his work cut out for him week one. The ability to stay in this game is going to fall on the shoulders of returning QB Adrian Martinez. After a year of injuries and playing hurt, Martinez looks to bounce back and show some of the skill he flashed early on. Two things he has going for him are Running Back Dedrick Mills and receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. These two are both expected to have big years, even more-so for the latter. Look for Robinson to be an all-league type player who will turn a lot of heads. The other thing the Huskers have going is returning their entire O-Line.

On the other side of the ball is where the issues will stand out and the reason for these bets. Last year Nebraska’s rush defense was it’s major weakness and things are expected to get much better, losing its three top D-Lineman. The secondary which played better last year, is expected to take a dip, having lost their best DB Lamar Jackson. I would expect that most games the Huskers win this year will be because of the offense and they are definitely a team on #OverWatch in 2020.

What To Expect: We will be doubling down on this game. While it might not suprise me to see the Buckeyes come out a little slow, as many teams have in their first game; I expect the offense to get going by the second quarter and never take it’s foot off the gas. With the short 8 game season and possible future cancelations if any covid breakouts happen in the conference, I could see Coach Day trying to run up scores as much as possible. B1G teams are already at a disadvantage so trying to build a resume and impress people is of the utmost importance each week. If it was later in the season I could see this being an even bigger blowout but with the Buckeyes replacing so much in the secondary and on the d-line, I see a big day in store Wan’Dale. Martinez’s legs could also be an x-factor. Don’t be shocked or scared if the game stays close early. I think the Buckeyes do most their damage in the 2nd/3rd quarters and then tack on in the 4th.

Buckeyes B1G and the Over. Oh Yah!!!

Final Prediction: Ohio State 55 Nebraska 21

3:30pm – Penn State @ Indiana +6.5

Next we move onto a mid-afternoon B1G game featuring pre-season, highly touted Penn State and an Indiana team coming off an impressive season.

Penn State: First we have the Nittany Lions who are ranked #8 in the AP Poll. Let’s first get the negatives out of the way. PSU are going to have to replace arguably their best offensive and defensive players from last season. WR KJ Hamler was THE Big-play guy for the Nittany Lions’ offense in 2019 and unfortunately he now plays for the Denver Broncos. On the defensive side of the ball, stud LB Micah Parsons opted and when the season was originally postponed. He, unlike most other B1G stars who opted back in, decided to focus on the NFL Draft. If that wasn’t bad enough, the team just announced that star RB Journey Brown is expected to miss most (If not all) of the season. Brown averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in his breakout year and expectations were sky high.

It’s not all negative however, as one would expect for a top 10 team. PSU brings in a new offensive coordinator from Minnesota (Kirk Ciarrocca), who excelled last year. He will bring a strong running and RPO offense to College Station, which should set up well. They will return QB Sean Clifford, a top notch O-Line and one of the best TE in the country, Pat Freiermuth. While the loss of Brown is big, PSU will still have two stellar backs in Noah Cain and Devyn Ford. On defense, the Nittany Lions return a lot of depth across the board and should once again be a stout run defense. The room for improvement is in the passing game. The development of the secondary and pass defense could be all the difference for the team this season.

Indiana: The Hoosiers will look to build off of one of their most successful season in recent memory, going 8-5 in 2019. Building on that will fall mainly on the offense, more specifically the passing game. And that will revolve around Sophomore Michael Penix Jr. The Dual Threat QB showed flashes as a true freshman last year despite an injury and is someone to keep an eye on this year. He has the arm talent to spread the ball around and the athleticism to extend plays. Penix Jr. will be the the ultimate weapon for new OC Nick Sheridan. Expect him to hurt teams on the run and spread the wealth around to WR Whop Philyor, WR Ty Fryfogle, and TE Peyton Hendershot.

On defense, the Hoosiers started off the year by losing one of their best players in safety Marcelino Ball to injury. They do return a lot of young players with experience on the first two levels. One would expect the secondary to be the strength of a defense that will most likely be out manned in several games. If they can help to eliminate the big passing plays this season, expect the Hoosiers to be a pesky out for teams this season.

What To Expect: I am not sure if you can have a trap game in the first week of the season, but if you can this might be it. Next week, the Nittany Lions will host Ohio State on Halloween Night. The fear here would be if PSU overlooks Indiana and hold back some plays for OSU. I am not sure if this will be the case, but the main reasons for siding with the Hoosiers here are:

-The line stinks. #8 Team in the country favored by less than a td?

-How soon can Penn State get the offense humming after needing to replace Hamler and Brown?

-Indiana offense and Penix Jr. will cause fits for Penn States defense.

Combine all this and I see a tight game. The Nittany Lions best be careful because a B1G upset could be brewing here if they do look ahead to Halloween. I smell B1G Trouble in Little Bloomington.

Final Prediction: PSU 34 Indiana 31

7:30pm – M*chigan @ Minnesota +3

Our final B1G game we will focus on this week is the the primetime ABC game of the week. This one features two top 25 teams and should be a good one.

M*chigan: This is a huge year for Jim Harbaugh and this is a huge game to get the season started. Harbaugh and the Wolverines season seems to be squarly on the shoulders of Sophomore QB Joe Milton. In choosing Milton over Dylan McCaffery (Who most thought would be the starter), Harbaugh is not only going with the future but also hoping to capitalize on the upside here. Milton has the potential to be the best QB Harbaugh has had since Andrew Luck. If Milton fails this year, especially since McCaffery has since transferred, this could be a disappointing season in Ann Arbor. Things will be a little harder for Milton, as star WR Nico Collins, has opted out for the season. You just can’t replace someone like Collins with one guy. Instead the team will rely on some of the young blue chips that Harbaugh has brought in over the last couple years. Ronnie Bell offers some veteran experience while Giles Jackson is the name to watch here.

Defensively the focus will be on how the secondary performs. The only returning starter, Ambry Thomas, also decided to opt out for the season. This leaves DC Don Brown with the task of building an entirely new secondary and with a short season it has to click quickly. Look for Vincent Grey and Daxton Hill to be the two main guys stepping up.

Minnesota: Entering his fourth season as head coach, PJ Fleck seems to be rowing the boat quite well. The Gophers are coming off an 11-2 season, including a win over Auburn in the bowl game. They will look to keep things going in 2020, with the help of returning signal caller Tanner Morgan. Morgan will have some things going for him this season. First off is star receiver Rashod Bateman. Next you have a strong returning offensive line. Then you have two capable running backs in Bryce Wiliams and Mohamad Ibrahim. All-in-all, this offense should be legit.

Defensively, losing Antoine Winfield Jr. is a huge loss. The secondary will do its best to replace Winfield with the likes of Coney Durr, Jordan Howden and Benjamin St-Juste. The Gophers lost several other key defensive players from 2019, so more pressure will be put on Morgan and the offense. I think the difference between a very good season and representing the B1G West will be the ability of the new guys to step up on D.

What To Expect: I just think this is a tough ask for Joe Milton and a young team. Going on the road for a primetime game Week 1 after nearly a 2 month delay.

Home game at night (no crowd), catching 3 and a hook? Gimme the home dogs here. The Wolverines won’t be able to keep up with Gophers rowing their damn boats #skiUMah

Final Prediction: Minnesota 33 UM 27

Best of the Rest

12:00pm – Syracuse @ Clemson O61.5

This one is squarly based on Clemson. Everyone saw them hang 70 on GTech last week right? Well I am condfident that GTech is better than this Syracuse team. This Syracuse team that just got handled, at home, by Liberty. If Clemson plays their starters deep into the second half and shows a willingness to run up the score, they honestly could hit this by themselves. Elite teams get fat and put up B1G numbers on teams like this in these kind of spots.

Final Prediction: Clemson 57 Syracuse 17

12:00pm – Auburn @ Ole Miss O70.5

This one is tough to go with considering how last week went. Ole Miss laid an egg after we anointed them as our 2020 Over Team.

And as we learned the last couple weeks, it is never a good feeling putting money on Bo Nix. Yet here we are. I am going to roll with the concept that Lane Kiffin will continue to play fast and bounce back with points this week. And we know they can’t play defense. If there was a ever a time to get the offense going for the Tigers, this is it.

Don’t let us down again Kiff…

Final Prediction: Auburn 43 Ole Miss 40

3:30pm – Bama -21 @ Tennessee

I mean, what can you say. Bama stormed back last week and hung 41 points on what some argued was the best defense in the country (Georgia). Tennessee on the flipside got steam rolled by rival Kentucky, 34-7. If UK managed 34 against the Vols, I can only imagine what Saban and the Tide offense will do. On the flip side, if UK could hold Tennesee to 7 points imagine what Saban and the Tide defense will do.

Tennessee fans once again find out that Bama is in another world from them. Bama B1G and make it look easy.

Final Prediction: Bama 50 Tennessee 17

3:30pm – V Tech @ Wake Forest O68

This is just a system play for me. Anytime you have two teams averaging over 40 ppg (41.5 Vtech, 40.3 Wake) and poor defenses, we are going to lean towards the Over. I honestly thought this could be mid-70’s. This matchup sort of strikes me as similar to VTech vs. UNC from a couple weeks back. Much like Same Howell did, I can see Wake QB Sam Hartman exposing the Vtech defense. That game ended up with a final score of 56-46. While I still think VTech is the more talented team and will pull out the “W”…

let’s take the leap of faith that the offenses prevail in this one…

Final Prediction: VTech 42 Wake 37

4:00pm – GTech @ Boston College O54.5

I have some good news for GTech fans. You don’t have to play Clemson again this week. Boy that was a tough one to say the least. Luckily this should be a more competitive game and one I like to go Over the total. Jeff Sims has proven two things. He has big play ability (Arm and feet) and he also is prone to turnovers (9). Both of these qualities can be good for an over. Pick 6? Turnovers setting up short field for BC? Both possible here. On the flip side the Yellow Jackets have also caused 11 turnovers. Boston College has struggled to stop the run and also to run the ball. With Boston College throwing more than ever and the Yellowjackets ability to exploit a poor rush defense, things are aligning for a higher scoring game than one would think.

So to recap, let’s expect some big defensive plays, some short fields, and some offenses exploiting weaknesses.

Bet it , win it, and thank me later…

Final Prediction: BC 37 GTech 30

There they are. 9 Winners for Week 8. A little more writeup this week than normal, to get you acquainted with some of what the B1G Ten has to offer. As always, make sure you follow the ol’Twitter (@BetOppositeOfMe) for additional adds, although some of those may be after a few adult recreational beverages. With 4 games on Friday odds are we will drink ourselves into one or two. So lets have some fun this week and as always if you fade them good luck…

but also…

#BOOM #CHEERS #SaturdaysAreForTheOver

Week 7: Seven Deadly Wins

Week 6 is a wrap and it was another winning one. The Blog went 5-2, including an all time Over in the Red River Rivalry/Shootout/Showdown/Whateveritscallednow. Hey sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. On Twitter we made four plays. We started off hot with two successful Overs. Unfortunately those were followed up with two of the worst Over attempts in a long, long time (UTSA/BYU especially, woof). Either way it was a 7-4 week, moving us to 18-8-1 on the season.

Enough with that, it’s time to focus on week 7. Right now the big thing to track is Covid, as the Florida game is already postponed and who knows about Bama now with Saban testing positive. However, instead of focusing on the negative news I prefer to focus on the positives. Like we are one week away from B1G football returning and closer to a full college slate.

Speaking of positives. Last night when I was looking over the games and making my picks one of my favorite movies of all-time, SEVEN, came on the TV. I thought, what better way that to celebrate week 7 that paying to tribute to it.

How the hell are you going to do that you ask?

Be patient…

Take a breath and calm down…

Friday Night Special

9:30pm – BYU @ Houston O62.5

LUST

After waiting 5 weeks for postponements and cancellations, we finally got Houston football back. With that came Houston Overs. While BYU let us down last week (Missing the Over by 1000000), I think they bounce back here. And plus the heart lusts for what the heart lusts for. For us that’s Houston Overs

Final Prediction: BYU 40 Houston 33

Saturday Early Slate

12:00pm – Auburn -3 @ South Carolina

SLOTH

All I can think about when 2020 South Carolina football is brought up is their game from two week’s ago against Florida. Throughtout the second half and specifically down 14 points late, they played about as slow as any team ever. Absolutely zero sense of urgency. It was infuriating to watch and I didn’t even have a horse in the race. Right there I told myself I would not back them this year and Muschamp might be the worst coach in the SEC.

As someone who likes fast paced games, this one won’t be on any of my tv’s. I’ll take the better team and the better coach in this snoozefest.

Final Prediction: Auburn 30 South Carolina 17

Afternoon Slate

3:30pm – Ole Miss @ Arkansas O75.5

GREED

I never in a million years thought I would see an over in the mid-70’s featuring Arkansas. I never in a billion years thought I would then take said over. Alas, here we are. And that is because of Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin. The whole world saw the shootout last week versus Bama, which scares me a bit. However I am greedy and just want more Ole Miss points and Overs…

Final Prediction: Ole Miss 47 Arkansas 43

3:30pm – UCF @ Memphis O74.5

GLUTTONY

I mean, not much to say here. UCF and Memphis Over was an auto play every time the last handful of years. Unfortunately last season they did not match up but I still can remember the 2018 AAC Title Game (56-41) and the 2017 AAC Title Game (62-55). Those are engrained in my brain and plus I can’t get enough Overs. Feed them all to me…

Final Prediction: UCF 48 Memphis 40

4:00pm – Texas A&M -6.5 @ Miss State

WRATH

So if I can’t trust you I will fade you. Go lay it on them Aggies!!!!

As I Tweeted out a few days ago. Two of my favorites have been retired for the season. Those being Texas Tech and Mississippi State (Mike Leach). The Bulldogs put up 2 points (2!!!!!) last week when I gave them out to win and to hit the over. I just can’t trust them (Disclaimer: May revisit the Over in the EGG Bowl because of the Leach vs. Kiffin aspect).

Final Prediction: A&M 34 Miss St. 17

Evening Slate

8:00pm – Georgia @ Bama -4 and O56.5

*Please note that Nick Saban is out with Covid*

ENVY & PRIDE

Two angles to this one. First off we will be backing the Tide in this one. Real bold pick, I know. This just feels like one of those spots where another SEC team thinks they are ready to step up to the level of Bama and Saban. That usually doesn’t bode well for them. Saban is 21-0 versus his former assistants and while he may not be coaching this week, he will be game planning. Bama is the envy of all SEC teams, if you want to fade them best of luck to ya…

Second up, we have the Over. While above we touched on Saban and his dominance. Here we will focus on Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian. His history and struggles have been well documented but one thing you can’t argue is his ability to call plays. He was just showing off last week en route to over 60 points. I already loved the over here but with Sarkisian getting the reigns to coach this week, I see it as a moment for him to be proud of when the clock hits zero.

Final Prediction: Bama 40 Georgia 28

There they are. 7 Deadly Wins to mark Week 7 of the season. As previously stated, make sure you follow the ol’Twitter (@BetOppositeOfMe) for additional adds, although some of those may be after a few adult recreational beverages. Something tells me that Friday Night SMU over might be drank into existence. So lets have some fun this week and as always if you fade them good luck

but also…

#BOOM #CHEERS #SaturdaysAreForTheOver

Week 6: No Debating It

Well it felt great to get back at it last week. And boy did it have a little bit of everything. We started off the week on Friday thinking we got the loss, only to realize we pushed at 59. Saturday saw us losing both starting QB’s in Texas Tech/K State…NOT GREAT for the over. It also saw us hit the Texas/TCU Over on a last second intentional safety…GREAT.

Combine that with the joy of over 80 points in Kentucky and the misery of watching Memphis/SMU forget how to score in the 2h….and what do you get?

A wonderful Fall Saturday of College Football. Nothing is better and there is no debating it.

So after the 4-3-1 week, we move to 11-4-1 on the season. It is really early and we won’t get ahead of ourselves but it is something to build on. As we move to Week 6, remember to enjoy it because the season will FLY by.

Saturday Early Slate

12:00pm: Florida @ Texas A&M O58.5

Florida has not let us down yet on the Over, as they still average nearly 45ppg. Texas A&M is coming off of giving up 52 to Bama last week. While Florida’s offense might not be quite as good a the Tide’s, it’s not that far off. On the other hand Bama’s defense is superior to Florida’s, and A&M managed 24 points last week. Based on these facts, do you think I am taking the Over here?

Final Prediction: Florida 37 Texas A&M 31

12:00pm: Texas @ Oklahoma O72.5

The Red River Rivalry!!!! Sure it won’t be the same without the packed stadium and fair in town. Sure both teams are coming off losses and some of the excitement has been lessoned. But you know what, I am a positive guy. And positive vibes say both teams still have explosive offenses and awful defenses. Combine that with both coaches being desperate and the Red River Rivalry might just have to change its name back to the Shootout. This one get’s the big TV at noon and I am PUMPED.

Final Prediction: Oklahoma 44 Texas 41

Afternoon Slate

4:00pm: Kansas State +8 @ TCU

Don’t have a lot to say here. I just know that over the years taking Kansas State as a dog in these spots has paid off. It goes back to Snyder ball and I think it carries over to Saturday. I know what you are thinking…”TCU just beat Texas!” It’s called a let down spot people. It might not be easy but I am rolling with the Wildcats to stay inside the number. Just…

Final Prediction: TCU 27 KSU 24

Evening Slate

7:30pm: Alabama @ Ole Miss O69

Kickoff has been moved back due to the looming hurricane. High liklihood of rain and weather. The number here has bounced between mid-60’s and mid-70’s. So basically alot of questions and variables here. Well the only variables I care about are these.

-Bama and Saban should be able to score at will

-Saban may have a little extra motivation to run it up on Lane

-Lane is Lane. He will pull out all the tricks and stay trying to score until the final whistle.

Plus who really knows about the weather this far out anyways.

Final Prediction: Alabama 52 Ole Miss 27

7:30pm: Miss. St. +2.5 @ Kentucky and O57.5

Everyone and their mother jumped off the Mississippi State bandwagon after last week’s inexcusable loss to Arkansas. Tough to blame them but call me stubborn. I think they are closer to who they were versus LSU than who they were last week. I think the Bulldogs win this outright and hit the Over on the way. And if you think this is just me blindly following our hero Mike Leach (You may be right), well…

Final Prediction: Miss. St 38 Kentucky 34

7:30pm: Miami @ Clemson -14

Earlier in the week I started talking myself into Miami. I started to believe the U was back. They crushed FSU! They crushed Louisville! Clemson always struggles once a year, why not here? I even told my buddy to consider Miami moneyline.

But then I realized that FSU stinks! Louisville stinks! and this is not a lookahead or overlook spot for Clemson. It is actually just the opposite. This is one of the few opportunities for the Tigers to show out versus a legit ACC opponent. So with that being said I think Clemson over powers and rolls easy. I just hope my friend didn’t listen to me on Monday and held off. I he didn’t I apologize.

Final Prediction: Clemson 47 Miami 20

There they are. 7 winners to take your mind off of election season and just how f’d we are here in the US of A. As always, make sure you follow the ol’Twitter (@BetOppositeOfMe) for additional adds, although some of those may be after a few adult recreational beverages. Odds are I will be adding the Houston Over tonight but just waiting on the weather reports. So lets have some fun this week and as always if you fade them good luck

but also…

#BOOM #CHEERS #SaturdaysAreForTheOver